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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 34
2018-10-04 22:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 042031 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 57.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......250NE 180SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 480SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 57.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 57.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 34.9N 58.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 180SE 160SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.1N 58.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 32.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 57.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Leslie Graphics
2018-10-04 16:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 14:41:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Oct 2018 15:22:04 GMT
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Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 33
2018-10-04 16:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 135 WTNT43 KNHC 041437 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 Leslie continues to have an inner area of convection near the center, with a larger convective band present about 120 n mi from the center and additional banding in the northwestern quadrant. Since the last advisory, the central convection has become less symmetric and the eye has become less defined. Based on this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 65 kt. While the vertical shear should remain light through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the center away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C temperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the next several days. Since there is little change in the guidance, the new intensity forecast is again an update of the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 355/8. In the short term, Leslie will be steered northward with some increase in speed between a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda. A decrease in forward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south and a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone. Beyond 48 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to east-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, although some spread in both direction and speed appears by 120 h. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is mostly a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 32.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 34.1N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 35.8N 58.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.6N 58.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 36.8N 56.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 36.0N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 33.5N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2018-10-04 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 862 FONT13 KNHC 041436 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-04 16:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 4 the center of Leslie was located near 32.5, -57.2 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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