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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-25 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 the center of Hilary was located near 15.5, -108.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 18
2017-07-25 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 252041 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 108.8W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 108.8 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-07-25 22:41:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 252040 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 108.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.4N 112.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 120.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 124.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane HILARY Graphics
2017-07-25 16:43:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 14:43:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 14:43:41 GMT
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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-07-25 16:39:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251439 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Satellite imagery shows that deep, but somewhat asymmetric, convection continues in the inner core of Hilary. The 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 indicates strong convective towers are firing in the northeastern eyewall, then attempting to rotate cyclonically around the center. Still, the eyewall remains open in the southwest quadrant, as suggested in the visible imagery and shown in a recent 1340 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. Intensity estimates remain about the same as overnight, so the initial wind speed will stay at 90 kt. Hilary is forecast to remain in a conducive environment for strengthening during the next day or so. However, the northerly wind shear is not far away, as evidenced by cirrus clouds moving toward the center in the northern semicircle, which could cause the hurricane to level off in intensity. Similar to yesterday at this time, the model guidance has really backed down off the peak intensity, with few of the solutions even showing Hilary reaching 100 kt. It was easier to ignore the models yesterday because they seemed unrealistic; today the shear is approaching and should impact the cyclone within 24 hours. It seems best to only gradually reduce the intensity forecast, so the latest NHC prediction is adjusted toward the model consensus by day 3, when more significant weakening is expected due to cooler waters, drier air, and interaction with Hurricane Irwin. The initial motion estimate is a little to the left and faster, 285/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Hilary to continue on a west to west-northwestward track for the next several days. In a few days, however, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane Irwin. While Irwin won't affect Hilary too much, the bulk of the guidance is showing a slowdown and slight turn to the left of Hilary as Irwin tugs on its circulation. Overall, models are in fairly good agreement considering the complexity of the situation, with even most of the GFS-based guidance now acknowledging the binary interaction. The official forecast has been gradually shifting westward at long range, and this advisory continues that trend, near or just west of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.3N 107.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 15.8N 109.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.3N 111.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 16.8N 113.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.4N 116.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 18.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 19.5N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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