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Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 19
2017-07-26 04:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260245 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 ...HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 109.8W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 109.8 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 19
2017-07-26 04:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260245 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 113.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 115.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 121.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.0N 124.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Hilary Graphics
2017-07-25 22:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 20:47:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Jul 2017 20:47:46 GMT
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-07-25 22:42:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252042 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 300 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Hilary continues to have a somewhat asymmetric presentation on the latest satellite imagery, with an eye feature in the northwestern portion of the central dense overcast, suggestive of some northwesterly shear. The initial wind speed remains 90 kt since there have been no significant changes to the satellite estimates. Higher wind shear is not far away from the hurricane, as evidenced by southward-moving cirrus clouds moving toward the center in the northern semicircle. Thus the window of time for Hilary to intensify may be closing, and little change in wind speed is shown for the next day or so. Afterward, gradually cooling SSTs, entrainment of drier air, and interaction with Hurricane Irwin is likely to cause more significant weakening. The NHC forecast is reduced from the previous one in the near term due to the shear, and at long range as Hilary probably moves over cold waters. This is not a particularly confident forecast at days 4-5 due to the interaction with Irwin. The initial motion estimate is the same as previous, 285/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Hilary to continue on a west to west-northwestward track for the next several days. In a few days, however, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane Irwin. While Irwin won't affect Hilary too much, the bulk of the guidance is showing Hilary slowing down and turning slightly left as Irwin pulls on Hilary's circulation. Model guidance has become more divergent after day 3, with the GFS indicating a northwestward motion due to the ridge weakening along 120-125W. The other guidance has been more consistent, so only small changes were made to the latest NHC forecast, which remains generally south and west of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.5N 108.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.9N 110.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.4N 112.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.9N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.7N 120.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 19.7N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 20.5N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-07-25 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 252041 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC TUE JUL 25 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) 15N 110W 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 110W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 53(55) 12(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 10(62) 1(63) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) 1(28) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 8(42) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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