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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 14

2017-09-08 22:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...JOSE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 58.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla. The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has issued a Hurricane Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 14

2017-09-08 22:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 082041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR SINT MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 58.3W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 165SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 58.3W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N 60.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.9N 64.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.7N 66.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.9N 68.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Jose Graphics

2017-09-08 19:47:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 17:47:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 15:33:45 GMT

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 13A

2017-09-08 19:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081744 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...JOSE REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 57.7W ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 57.7 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Jose will pass near or east of the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or so, and gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The most recent minimum pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning this afternoon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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