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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)

2015-08-27 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIKA A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER PASSING BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND ANTIGUA... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.8, -61.5 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 10

2015-08-27 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 270850 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER PASSING BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND ANTIGUA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 61.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevisis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 61.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands this morning, move near the Virgin Islands later today, move near or north of Puerto Rico tonight, and pass north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), mainly to the north and east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, and reach the Virgin Islands later today and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands this morning. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday and the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and the Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turk and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas through Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2015-08-27 10:47:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 270847 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 11(35) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 9(32) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 11(43) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 22(40) 5(45) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) 3(39) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 2(14) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 8(40) 1(41) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 6(43) 1(44) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 1(14) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 26(44) 1(45) X(45) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE 34 1 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PONCE 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 1 41(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAN JUAN 50 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JUAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 5 62(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 7 43(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAINT CROIX 50 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 72 11(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT MAARTEN 50 12 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 81 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBUDA 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BARBUDA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ANTIGUA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 10

2015-08-27 10:47:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 270846 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * MONTSERRAT * ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA * ST. KITTS AND NEVISIS * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 61.5W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 61.5W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.6N 63.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 66.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 61.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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