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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-09 16:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091437 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located just to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB. The vertical shear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is forecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours. Therefore strengthening seems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures near 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance. The depression has been meandering this morning and the current motion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to the east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave trough moves into the northeastern United States. This should result in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed beginning within 12 hours. After 48 hours, the system should turn to the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. An alternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become absorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 30.7N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 31.4N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.0N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 35.5N 61.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 38.8N 60.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 48.0N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-09 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 091437 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 11(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) X(20) X(20) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-09 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of EIGHT was located near 30.7, -60.8 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-09 16:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091436 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 60.8W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 60.8 West. The depression is drifting toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center will pass well east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-09 16:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091436 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 60.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 60.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 35.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 38.8N 60.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 48.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 48.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 60.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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