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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-09-09 22:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092042 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized so far today, and the low-level center is exposed a short distance to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection. The deep convection itself is not well organized, with scant evidence of banding features. Final data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the intensity at 30 kt. The vertical wind shear over the system, which is currently near 20 kt from the southwest, is predicted by the global models to relax somewhat over the next 24 to 48 hours. This would allow for some strengthening, as indicated in the official forecast. By 72 hours, the cyclone should be located over cold waters and the global models depict it as embedded within a baroclinic zone. Therefore the system is forecast to be extratropical around that time. The depression is still drifting east-southeastward or 115/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge is predicted to build to the east and northeast of the cyclone while a trough drops into the eastern United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the cyclone to move northward at an increasing forward speed into Friday. Afterwards, the flow ahead of the trough should cause the system to turn eastward at an even faster forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 30.6N 60.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.9N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.9N 61.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 36.9N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 40.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 47.0N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 48.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 48.0N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-09 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of EIGHT was located near 30.6, -60.4 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 4
2015-09-09 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092042 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 60.4W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 60.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue into Friday. On the forecast track, the center will pass well east of Bermuda early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-09-09 22:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092042 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.9N 60.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.9N 61.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 36.9N 60.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 40.7N 59.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 47.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 48.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 48.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 60.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2015-09-09 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 14:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 14:52:18 GMT
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