je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2015-09-06 16:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 061431 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Advisory Number 31
2015-09-06 16:31:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061431 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 43.2W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 43.2W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 43.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N 42.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.2N 38.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.4N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.8N 34.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 32.9N 31.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 31.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 43.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
advisory
fred
tropical
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-06 10:56:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060856 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased in coverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has not changed very much. The center appears to be located near the eastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly shear. An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating the center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady strengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm very soon. The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable environment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days. This is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models. After 72 hours, decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should cause weakening by days 4 and 5. The depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4 days while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours and indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast period. As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the previous advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48 hours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Graphics
2015-09-06 10:54:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 08:48:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 08:53:49 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression FRED Graphics
2015-09-06 10:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 08:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Sep 2015 08:50:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
fred
tropical
depression
Sites : [1265] [1266] [1267] [1268] [1269] [1270] [1271] [1272] [1273] [1274] [1275] [1276] [1277] [1278] [1279] [1280] [1281] [1282] [1283] [1284] next »