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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-09-09 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090837 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 Grace is only producing a couple of small patches of disorganized convection this morning. An ASCAT-B overpass from several hours ago showed that the circulation has become elongated from east to west, and is less defined than it was yesterday. The scatterometer data also showed that the maximum winds are around 25 kt, and NOAA buoy 41041 has observed similar winds. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 25 kt, which is also close to the latest satellite intensity estimates. The depression continues to battle west-southwesterly shear of about 20 kt and a fairly stable air mass. These conditions are expected to become even more hostile, which should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low or become a trough within the next day or two before it reaches the Lesser Antilles. This scenario is supported by nearly all of the models. The center of Grace appears to be located a little to the south of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is due westward, or 270 degrees, at 15 kt. Grace, or its remnant, is expected to continue moving westward at about the same speed until it dissipates in a few days or less. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous one, based mainly on the more southward initial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.9N 53.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 56.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 15.9N 60.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-09 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of GRACE was located near 14.3, -47.2 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression GRACE Public Advisory Number 16
2015-09-09 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 ...GRACE CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 47.2W ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 47.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is expected to become a remnant low or an open wave in the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-09-09 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 090837 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-09-09 10:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.2W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 47.2W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.5N 49.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.9N 53.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.4N 56.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.9N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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