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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2015-09-09 06:25:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0430 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 000 FONT13 KNHC 090425 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 0430 UTC WED SEP 09 2015 AT 0430Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) X(26) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) X(24) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) X(20) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 9(41) X(41) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind tropical

 

Tropical Depression GRACE Graphics

2015-09-09 04:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 02:38:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 02:50:46 GMT

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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 15

2015-09-09 04:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090237 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 Grace continues to produce disorganized bursts of convection near and south of the low-level center, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass shows that the cyclone still has a closed circulation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, although the scatterometer data suggests this could be a little generous. The cyclone is likely to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next day or two. However, it is moving through an environment of dry mid-level air and westerly vertical shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by 72 hours - a combination that should cause further weakening. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, calling for Grace to become a remnant low in about 36 hours and to dissipate completely after 72 hours. There is a possibility, supported by most of the global models, that Grace could degenerate into an open wave before 72 hours. The initial motion remains 275/16 kt. A low- to mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to steer Grace or its remnants quickly westward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is again an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.6N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.9N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 16.3N 58.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 17.0N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion grace tropical

 

Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)

2015-09-09 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.6, -45.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)

2015-09-08 23:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.4, -44.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary grace tropical depression

 

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