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Summary for Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (EP5/EP152015)
2015-09-06 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 the center of FIFTEEN-E was located near 13.7, -108.3 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-09-06 10:47:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060847 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 6( 6) 26(32) 3(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 22(47) 5(52) 1(53) X(53) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-09-06 10:47:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060847 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 108.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 108.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-09-06 10:37:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060837 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015 Thunderstorm activity has continued to pulse near the center of Fred overnight, however, strong northwesterly shear is causing the cloud tops to be quickly shunted southeastward. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB. Little overall change in strength is expected today. In 24 to 36 hours the shear is expected to diminish, which could allow a brief opportunity for Fred to restrengthen. After that time, the cyclone is expected to enter an area of stronger westerly upper-level winds and cooler SSTs, which should halt further intensification. Late in the period, strong shear and marginal SSTs should cause weakening. An alternate scenario shown by the ECMWF is for the shear to cause Fred to weaken and become a trough of low pressure within the next 12 to 24 hours. Fred has finally made its much anticipated northward turn. A turn toward the northeast should occur later today as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a low-level ridge to its northeast. A turn toward the east and then southeast are forecast late in the period as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with the 0000 UTC GFS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.9N 43.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 29.2N 40.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 30.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 32.2N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 31.5N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-06 10:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED TURNS NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 6 the center of FRED was located near 24.9, -43.2 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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