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Tropical Depression GRACE Public Advisory Number 14
2015-09-08 23:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082150 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 ...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 44.2W ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday night, and it could also degenerate to an open wave during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression GRACE (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-08 22:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 8 the center of GRACE was located near 14.4, -44.2 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression GRACE Graphics
2015-09-08 16:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 14:35:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2015 14:50:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression GRACE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-08 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 081432 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015 After the overnight burst of deep convection, thunderstorm activity has diminished and the overall cloud pattern remains disorganized. Data from a recent ASCAT overpass show that Grace's maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, so the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression on this advisory. The cyclone is forecast to move through an environment of increasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air for the next few days. These unfavorable factors should cause the system to weaken further, and to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area over the next day or two. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is slightly below the latest intensity model consensus. It is possible that Grace could open up into a wave during the next few days, as indicated by the global models. The cyclone continues to move westward at a fairly rapid pace, with the motion estimate remaining at 275/17 kt. The steering pattern is expected to remain uncomplicated. Grace or its remnant should continue to move west or slightly north of west, to the south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge throughout the forecast period. The official track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.3N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 14.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 14.8N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 15.3N 52.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 15.8N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 16.6N 62.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression GRACE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-09-08 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 081432 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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