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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2015-09-09 10:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 08:48:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 08:52:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression GRACE Graphics
2015-09-09 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 08:39:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2015 08:50:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-09 10:47:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090847 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the last several hours. The system remains sheared with the low-level center located to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt based on the steady state nature of the system since the earlier scatterometer data. The current shear of about 20 kt from the west-southwest is expected to continue through the day, therefore, only slow strengthening is expected during that time. The shear is anticipated to lessen in 24-48 hours, which could provide a better opportunity for strengthening before the cyclone crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream current in 2-3 days. The cyclone is expected to lose tropical characteristics by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance. The depression has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory. A northward motion is expected to begin later today and then increase in forward speed during the next couple of days as a deep layer trough moves eastward toward the system. The cyclone is forecast to become embedded in strong mid-latitude flow in a few days, causing it to accelerate and turn northeastward and then eastward. Only small changes were made to the previous track forecast, and it lies near the consensus aids. The latter part of the track forecast excludes the GFS, which dissipates the system before it becomes extratropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.9N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.3N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 32.5N 61.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 34.7N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 37.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 44.5N 56.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 48.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 48.0N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082015)
2015-09-09 10:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT STATIONARY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of EIGHT was located near 30.9, -61.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 2
2015-09-09 10:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090846 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082015 500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT STATIONARY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 61.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.4 West. The depression is stationary, but it is expected to begin moving northward later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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