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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-09-06 04:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060245 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 After being devoid of convection for about the past 12 hours, a new burst of thunderstorms has begun near the center of Fred. Cirrus clouds motions suggest that shear remains fairly strong near the center of Fred, although seemingly less than this time yesterday. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, in line with the TAFB satellite estimate. Shear is expected to diminish in about a day, which could allow the cyclone to reintensify around that time while it moves over warm waters. However, any intensification is expected to be short-lived with marginal water temperatures and increasing shear likely by Wednesday. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one through 48 h, and is reduced a little bit at long range to reflect the less favorable conditions. Fred is moving northwestward at about 9 kt into a break in the subtropical ridge. The depression should turn to the north and then northeast during the day on Sunday while the cyclone moves on the northwestern side of the ridge, with that motion expected to continue for a couple of days. Model guidance is generally faster during this time, and the new offical forecast is faster than the previous one. The cyclone could turn then eastward and southeastward on days 4 and 5 due to ridging building over the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is of low confidence at long range due to considerable uncertainty about the strength of the tropical cyclone and the evolution of the ridge. There have not been any big changes to the model consensus, so the official forecast is basically an update of the previous one at 96 and 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 24.1N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 24.8N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 26.4N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 29.5N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 32.0N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 32.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 31.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2015-09-06 04:43:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 060243 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-06 04:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of FRED was located near 24.1, -43.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FRED Public Advisory Number 29
2015-09-06 04:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060243 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 ...FRED LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 43.1W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 43.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Sunday, with a turn to the northeast forecast by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Advisory Number 29
2015-09-06 04:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 060242 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 43.1W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 43.1W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.4N 42.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 39.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 32.5N 33.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 31.5N 31.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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