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Tropical Depression FRED Graphics
2015-09-04 23:14:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 20:33:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 21:07:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion Number 24
2015-09-04 22:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 042033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015 The depression consists of a very tight circulation largely devoid of deep convection. Recently a convective band is forming east of the center, but it appears that each new burst of convection is weaker than the previous one. It is estimated that the winds are still 30 kt, and given the strong shear the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in 24 hours or so. The GFS and UK global models, as well as the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance, regenerate Fred by the end of the forecast period, and so does the official forecast. The steering pattern has not changed yet, and the depression is still moving on a general west to west-northwest track at 8 kt. In about 48 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central Atlantic. This pattern should force the depression or its remnants to recurve and become embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is within the guidance envelope during the next 2 to 3 days and then lies between the GFS and the multi-model consensus. The GFS insists on keeping Fred meandering across the North Atlantic for more than a week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 22.8N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 23.3N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 24.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 25.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1800Z 28.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96H 08/1800Z 31.5N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H 09/1800Z 33.5N 31.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression FRED (AT1/AL062015)
2015-09-04 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4 the center of FRED was located near 22.6, -39.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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fred
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depression
Tropical Depression FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2015-09-04 22:31:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 042031 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Depression FRED Graphics
2015-09-04 17:14:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 14:47:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 15:07:51 GMT
Tags: graphics
fred
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