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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-09-05 16:45:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 051445 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 Satellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the disturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better organized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is not very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a good circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a mid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the initial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were available at the time of this advisory. The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered north of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of a general westward track for the next 3 days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not acknowledge the existence of a cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression SEVEN (AT2/AL072015)
2015-09-05 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5 the center of SEVEN was located near 12.3, -25.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Public Advisory Number 1
2015-09-05 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 051444 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 25.2W ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 25.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-09-05 16:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 051444 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression SEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 1
2015-09-05 16:44:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 051444 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 25.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 25.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 24.6W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 25.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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