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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-11-02 03:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 020234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 0300 UTC SAT NOV 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 108.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N 110.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.1N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 108.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-01 21:33:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2013 20:33:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2013 20:32:50 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-01 21:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Nov 1 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 16.7, -108.3 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 3
2013-11-01 21:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 012032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 200 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 ...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 108.3W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THIS PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH ...6 KM/H. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2013-11-01 21:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 012032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 5 9 6 14 50 NA TROP DEPRESSION 63 36 34 26 36 37 NA TROPICAL STORM 34 58 53 59 46 13 NA HURRICANE X 2 4 9 4 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 2 4 8 3 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 35KT 40KT 35KT 15KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 1(26) X(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 2(26) X(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 4(18) X(18) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 11(11) 16(27) 10(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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