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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2013-11-01 21:31:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 012031 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 108.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.7N 107.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 105.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Graphics
2013-11-01 16:08:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2013 14:45:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2013 15:04:43 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-11-01 15:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011445 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...THE CENTER IS HARD TO FIND...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 30 KT. THE SYSTEM HAS SOME CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER DURING THAT TIME...MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE...THE WEAKER IDEA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24H...AND IS BASICALLY THE SAME THEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 48H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MAKING A LEFTWARD TURN...AND IS NOW MOVING ROUGHLY 345/6. RIDGING SHOULD TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48H TO BETTER FIT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.9N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 17.4N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.8N 109.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.4N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.6N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 27.0N 105.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E (EP3/EP182013)
2013-11-01 15:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Nov 1 the center of EIGHTEEN-E was located near 16.9, -108.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 2
2013-11-01 15:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 011443 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013 ...DEPRESSION NOT WELL ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 108.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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