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Summary for Tropical Depression SIX (AT1/AL062013)
2013-08-25 22:57:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 the center of SIX was located near 19.5, -95.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression SIX Public Advisory Number 1
2013-08-25 22:57:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 252057 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 95.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN A FEW HOURS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Advisory Number 1
2013-08-25 22:57:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 252057 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM WARNING STATEMENT THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO TAMPICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 95.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 95.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART
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Tropical Depression SIX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2013-08-25 22:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 252038 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 15 35 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 39 53 46 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 57 31 18 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 25KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TUXPAN MX 34 4 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) VERACRUZ MX 34 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-25 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 252038 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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