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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-08-25 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 251434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.9W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 114.9W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression IVO Graphics
2013-08-25 10:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 08:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 08:32:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-08-25 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 DESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS... WHICH STILL SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF 25- TO 30-KT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS IVO MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. IVO HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OF SPEED AND IS MOVING 335/9 KT...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO STALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOISTURE FROM IVO IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 25.7N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 27.1N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression IVO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-08-25 10:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 250832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 32 35 38 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 77 54 47 40 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 15 18 21 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression IVO (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-25 10:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of IVO was located near 24.4, -114.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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