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Tropical Depression IVO Graphics
2013-08-25 17:07:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 14:35:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2013 15:03:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-08-25 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON IVO...AS THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. IVO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IVO SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8 KT. IVO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM IVO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression IVO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-08-25 16:35:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 251435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 31 35 37 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 77 53 47 40 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 15 18 21 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X X 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression IVO (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-25 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MOISTURE FROM IVO SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of IVO was located near 25.1, -114.9 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression IVO Public Advisory Number 13
2013-08-25 16:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 251434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 ...MOISTURE FROM IVO SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 114.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. IVO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND IVO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MIDDAY. RAINFALL...IVO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM IVO WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TODAY WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IVO ARE STILL AFFECTING THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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