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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 28
2019-09-19 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190848 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 128.2W ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 128.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected tonight through Friday night. A west-southwestward motion is expected Saturday and Saturday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Kiko may re-gain hurricane strength by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 28
2019-09-19 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190848 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 128.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 128.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-19 05:55:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 03:55:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-19 04:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:32:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:32:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 27
2019-09-19 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko's appearance has not changed substantially during the past 6 hours. Although the wind shear is very light, at least some dry air appears be getting into the inner core of the tropical storm, limiting Kiko's deep convection. The intensity remains 55 kt based on the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates. Both dynamical intensity models (HWRF and HMON) show that Kiko will eventually reform an inner convective core and strengthen, but do so several days apart. It seems likely, given the light shear and warm SSTs beneath the tropical storm, that Kiko will restrengthen at some point. That said, determining the exact timing is probably beyond our current ability to forecast tropical cyclone intensity. The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next several days, as shown by HCCA, but I would not be surprised if Kiko is nearly steady-state for a day or two, and then strengthens at a faster rate than expected. Confidence in the intensity forecast is therefore somewhat low. The initial motion is now 265/5 kt. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. Oscillations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north Kiko should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in a day or so, and then back toward the west another day after that. After Kiko reaches the crest of its curvy path, it is expected to turn southwestward yet again by the weekend. The model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for such an unusual track and the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus, with a little extra emphasis placed on the ECMWF which has thus far handled the forecast of Kiko quite well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.8N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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