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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

2019-09-19 04:31:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 1 13(14) 15(29) 4(33) 8(41) 3(44) 1(45) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 3(23) X(23) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 39(47) 17(64) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 7(21) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-19 04:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 15.8, -127.8 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 27

2019-09-19 04:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO HEADING WEST ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward track is expected through this evening followed by a west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Thursday and Friday. Kiko is then forecast to turn westward yet again by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane again on Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 27

2019-09-19 04:30:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.2N 130.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.1N 132.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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