je.st
news
Tag: kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 29
2019-09-19 16:47:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 128.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 128.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.4N 129.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.8N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 133.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.5N 135.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-19 10:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 08:51:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 09:45:08 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 28
2019-09-19 10:49:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190849 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Water vapor satellite imagery as well as satellite-derived winds indicate that there is some southwesterly shear undercutting Kiko tonight, with a large upper level trough digging several hundred miles to the northwest of the cyclone. This flow is likely feeding some dry air into the system, and these factors could explain why Kiko has not been intensifying recently. The objective Dvorak estimate from TAFB as well as subjective intensity estimates suggest that the initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt. Despite the forecast for shear to be generally relaxed, Kiko will have to overcome dry and stable air to its north and west that may keep entraining into the cyclone's circulation in the coming days. The majority of the intensity guidance only show some slight strengthening over the next several days. And, due to the mixed positive and negative signals for intensification, the official forecast agrees with this scenario and gradually brings Kiko to hurricane strength in about 36 hours, and intensifies it just a little more after that time. The official forecast intensity is very near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The initial motion is westward at 5 kt. A developing weakness in the ridge to the northwest of Kiko will allow for a west-northwest to northwest motion over the next couple of days. Ridging will rebuild to the northwest of Kiko after that time, which will induce a west-southwestward motion. Late in the forecast period, that ridge will weaken, resulting in a turn back to the northwest. The main change to the official forecast track was to nudge it a little to the right, as the well performing ECMWF has shifted quite a bit northward on the latest run. The official forecast now lies on the southern edge of the clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.1N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.1N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 16.3N 135.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 17.6N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2019-09-19 10:49:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190849 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 1 12(13) 6(19) 4(23) 5(28) 3(31) X(31) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 10(13) 39(52) 10(62) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 7(18) 7(25) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-19 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of Kiko was located near 15.9, -128.2 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kiko
Sites : [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] next »