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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-07-08 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013 CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL DEFINED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING IN APPEARANCE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 2.5...SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS. ALSO...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND 2 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER THE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT HIGH. LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT A RAPID WESTWARD MOTION... 280/23...IS CONTINUING. THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CELL OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT 3-5 DAYS...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE GFS...ONE OF THE FEW DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAINTAIN A COHERENT VORTEX THROUGH DAY 5...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 10.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 12.9N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.6N 62.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.2N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 19.0N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 22.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 25.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-07-08 05:17:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080317 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS MORNING....WITH SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35-KT WIND VECTORS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ASCAT AND AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/23. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER CHANTAL ON A WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON THE SAME HEADING UNTIL A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE TRACK OF CHANTAL SHOULD BEND MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW CHANTAL TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IN ABOUT 72-96 HOURS COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT CHANTAL BY THAT TIME. THIS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND LAND INTERACTION COULD EVEN CAUSE CHANTAL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 9.8N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 10.8N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 12.1N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.6N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 18.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-07-08 04:52:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080252 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO WARM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.8N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-07-07 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072042 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK REMAINS VIGOROUS...THE CYCLONE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR. ERICK SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/9. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS ON THIS ADVISORY CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND BY BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TURN AND SLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EASTERN PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 20.3N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-07-07 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071440 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND NO SIGNS OF AN EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB/CIMSS DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ERICK HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY WITH THE CYCLONE NOW CROSSING OVER COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST...A BIT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-22C WATER...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING ERICK TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE ERICK IS MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 20.0N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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