Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 29

2013-07-06 22:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062037 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 DALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THERE IS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS BARELY ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT... AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM HURRICANE ERICK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE. VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY. DALILA SHOULD BEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-07-06 16:57:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061457 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ MICROWAVE CHANNELS. IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAND. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 
 

Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 28

2013-07-06 16:54:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061454 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 FINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED UNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST OF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATER TODAY. DALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 27

2013-07-06 10:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060837 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-07-06 10:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060836 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS. THE GFS MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [1252] [1253] [1254] [1255] [1256] [1257] [1258] [1259] [1260] [1261] [1262] [1263] [1264] [1265] [1266] [1267] [1268] [1269] [1270] [1271] next »