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Post-Tropical Cyclone ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-07-09 16:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091431 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 ERICK HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS NOW...WHICH MEANS THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7-8 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER 20-21C SST WATER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE REMNANT LOW OF ERICK DISSIPATING WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 24.4N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-09 10:37:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090837 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013 CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND ASCAT DATA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CHANTAL LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 290/23. A CONTINUED FAST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE CHANTAL ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING...AND NEAR HISPANIOLA ON WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE CHANTAL TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER...TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND SHEAR. PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES OVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS. ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.3N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 16.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 18.2N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 23.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 26.5N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 28.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-07-09 10:32:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS DISSIPATED. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING EVEN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. ERICK SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BE DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS THAT IT REMAINS ON COURSE WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 310/9. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.9N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-07-09 05:00:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090300 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF CHANTAL HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING CHANTAL FOUND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT NORTHWEST AND WEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WERE THEREFORE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 58 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 40 TO 42 KT. A BLEND OF THE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A SURPRISINGLY HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. CHANTAL CONTINUES TO RACE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SOME DECELERATE EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE DEVLOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER. THE LATEST GFS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. AFTER CHANTAL INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST... CHANTAL COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY TIME PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CHANTAL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND RE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AROUND DAY 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 12.4N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 13.7N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 15.3N 63.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 17.1N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 19.0N 71.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 22.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 25.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-07-09 04:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER ERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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