Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Post-Tropical Cyclone DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 31

2013-07-07 10:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070836 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 DALILA LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEET THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION REQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...DALILA HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME. THEREFORE...DALILA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0430 UTC. THE REMNANT LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD LATER TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0600Z 17.1N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1800Z 18.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

 

Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-07-07 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070835 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME. BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO. ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 
 

Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-07-07 04:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070257 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 THE PROXIMITY OF ERICK TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. RECENT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED SOME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN BETWEEN T4.0 AND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR NOW. ERICK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY SINCE LAND INTERACTION AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD HASTEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 24 HOURS... THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR NOW THE NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS CLOSE TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.7N 105.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 30

2013-07-07 04:51:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070251 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS SQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE DESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION REFORMS SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND IN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT. DALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST- SOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY LEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-07-06 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062046 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE... AND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS AND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. ERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY IF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

 

Sites : [1251] [1252] [1253] [1254] [1255] [1256] [1257] [1258] [1259] [1260] [1261] [1262] [1263] [1264] [1265] [1266] [1267] [1268] [1269] [1270] next »