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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 16
2016-07-06 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 062034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...BLAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 124.7W ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 124.7 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast tonight and Thursday, followed by a faster rate of weakening by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-07-06 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 062034 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-06 17:07:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 14:41:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 15:04:34 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-07-06 16:42:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061442 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 The overall satellite appearance of Blas has changed little since early this morning. Blas has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a large 25 to 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by a symmetric convective ring with little outer banding features. The initial intensity remains 110 kt, and is a blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates. Blas is currently in a low shear environment and over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius. Although the shear is forecast to remain low for the next several days, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, Blas will be moving over SSTs below 26C which should cause a faster rate of weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies between the SHIPS and LGEM models. Blas is moving west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 10 kt, and should continue on this general motion during the next 36 to 48 hours while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. By 72 hours, the model guidance begins to diverge with the GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and GFS ensemble mean taking Blas northwestward around the eastern portion of a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii. The ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward track, with less interaction between the upper-low and the hurricane. This appears to be the result of the size, location, and orientation of the upper-low in the various models. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is low confidence in the the track forecast late in the period, and the NHC forecast track remains near the GFS/ECMWF consensus at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.0N 123.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 128.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.5N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.6N 133.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 21.8N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1200Z 22.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-07-06 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 061441 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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