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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-06 16:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LARGE EYE OF BLAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 the center of BLAS was located near 15.0, -123.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 15
2016-07-06 16:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 061441 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...LARGE EYE OF BLAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 123.6W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 123.6 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast tonight and Thursday, followed by a faster rate of weakening by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 15
2016-07-06 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 061440 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 123.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.4N 125.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 127.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.6N 128.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 130.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 133.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.8N 137.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-06 11:04:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 08:32:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 09:04:37 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-06 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060836 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Blas has degraded since the previous advisory, as the convective ring surrounding the eye had warmed and shrunk. The eye, however, remains distinct in infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt, which is a little above a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. Sea surface temperatures gradually cool along the forecast track, which should result in weakening, albeit at a slow pace during the first day or so. After 24 hours the rate of weakening should increase as SSTs fall below 27C. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days and a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to or a little above the latest LGEM and IVCN intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 280/10, as Blas has begun to gain some latitude. Blas should move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours while being steered around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. After that time the model spread increases. The GFS based guidance, including the HWRF and GFDL, shows Blas turning northwestward late in the period as it interacts with an upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The ECMWF continues to show less interaction between Blas and the upper-level low and has the cyclone turning westward at days 4-5. Given the continued spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast will stay in the middle of the two extremes and shows a northwestward to west-northwestward motion at days 4-5. This forecast is a little south of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus. Given the uncertainty, there is low confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.7N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.1N 124.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.3N 128.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 16.9N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 21.0N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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