je.st
news
Tag: blas
Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 19
2016-07-07 16:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 071438 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 1500 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 127.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 140SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 127.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 128.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.7N 129.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.9N 131.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N 132.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.9N 135.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 22.0N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-07 10:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2016 08:45:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 07 Jul 2016 08:42:36 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
blas
hurricane graphics
Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-07-07 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070844 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016 Blas continues to maintain an impressive satellite presentation, with a distinct 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of cold convective tops. Overall, the cyclone has been steady-state for the last 24 hours or so, consistent with some annular hurricane characteristics such as minimal convective banding and a large eye. The initial intensity remains 110 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications of T5.5/6.0 from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable atmospheric environment during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should result in the onset of weakening. Weakening should continue after that time, with Blas expected to move over SSTs of about 24C in 48 hours. Deep convection is expected to dissipate late in the period, and Blas should become post-tropical in 4 days, or perhaps a bit sooner. The official forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 290/09, as Blas continues to be steered around the southwestern periphery of a distant mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is forecast to turn northwestward in 24-36 hours as it reaches the western edge of the ridge, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario. Through 48 hours the NHC track has been shifted a bit north of the previous one following the latest trend in the guidance. Afterward, most of the guidance shows a continued west-northwestward or northwestward motion through 72 hours as Blas interacts with an upper-level closed low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, followed by the shallow post-tropical Blas turning westward. The ECMWF continues to show less interaction with the upper-level low, and turns Blas westward and west-southwestward at days 4 and 5. Compared to 24 hours ago, the GFS-based guidance has shifted southward and the ECMWF has trended a bit northward, suggesting that a consensus approach is still the best solution. The new NHC track at days 3 through 5 is close to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. This track is a little south of the latest multi-model consensus but well north of the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.9N 126.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 16.4N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.2N 129.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.5N 131.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 21.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 22.0N 143.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane BLAS Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2016-07-07 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 070844 PWSEP3 HURRICANE BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0900 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-07 10:44:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 7 the center of BLAS was located near 15.9, -126.4 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
blas
ep3ep032016
Sites : [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] next »