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Hurricane BLAS Public Advisory Number 17
2016-07-07 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 070234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BLAS ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...BLAS HOLDING ITS STRENGTH AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 125.4W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blas was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 125.4 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Blas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Advisory Number 17
2016-07-07 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 0300 UTC THU JUL 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 140SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 125.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 125.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.1N 126.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.7N 128.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 129.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.7N 131.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.8N 134.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 5SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 22.1N 138.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.2N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane BLAS Graphics
2016-07-06 23:09:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 20:35:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2016 21:05:43 GMT
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Hurricane BLAS Forecast Discussion Number 16
2016-07-06 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032016 200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016 Blas has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon. The hurricane has a large, distinct eye in visible satellite images that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers are virtually unchanged since this morning so the initial intensity of 110 kt has been maintained. The hurricane is expected to begin to weaken tonight as it moves over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures. Blas should cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours, which is expected to cause a faster rate of decay. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 96 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus. The initial motion remains 285/10 kt. Blas should continue moving west-northwestward during the next day or so while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the hurricane is expected to turn northwestward between the western portion of the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The spread of the guidance remains fairly large at 72 hours and beyond, however, the models have moved a little closer together with the GFS-based guidance shifting southward while the ECMWF has nudged northward. As a result, little change has been made to the NHC track prediction, which lies closest to the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 15.2N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.7N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 20.2N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.8N 137.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane BLAS (EP3/EP032016)
2016-07-06 22:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...BLAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 the center of BLAS was located near 15.2, -124.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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