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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 641 WTNT32 KNHC 110839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 51.7W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 51.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands today and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 110839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 31(77) 6(83) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 29(47) 6(53) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 4(30) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-11 04:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 02:52:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 02:52:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-11 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110251 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Paulette has been fighting off intense vertical wind shear, which is analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be on the order of 35-40 kt out of the southwest. Deep convection with cold cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C have persisted near and to the northeast of the center throughout the evening. A late arriving ASCAT overpass revealed that Paulette is stronger than previously analyzed, with believable wind vectors of 50-55 kt in the northeastern quadrant. There were some values even higher than these. However, the ASCAT ambiguities and satellite imagery suggest most of those are either rain contaminated or too close to the edge of the ASCAT pass to be trustworthy. Nonetheless, the other values indicate that the initial intensity is now at least 55 kt. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the current shear over Paulette will begin to gradually decrease tomorrow and continue to decrease into the weekend. By late Saturday the guidance indicates the shear could fall to 10 kt or less. By that time, the cyclone is forecast to be traversing over waters with SSTs near 29 C. The only negative environmental factor could be some dry air in the vicinity of the system. However that same dry air has not seemed to have that much of an effect on Paulette as of late. With shear expected to remain fairly strong the next 24 h, no strengthening is anticipated during that time. After 24 h, Paulette should gradually intensify into early next week. The NHC intensity forecast for this advisory has been increased across the board. In the near term this change is due to the adjusted initial intensity. Beyond 24 h, the latest NHC forecast is close to a blend of the multi-model consensus values, including the HFIP corrected consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. Paulette is now moving northwest, or 305/09 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning from the previous advisory. The forecast models are in good agreement between a generally northwest to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered around a subtropical ridge to its north. Around day 4, about the same time the system would be making its closest approach to Bermuda, a turn to the northeast is expected as the system rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tracks of the various consensus aids. It should be noted that there is sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early next week. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-11 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Paulette was located near 22.7, -50.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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