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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-10-05 10:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 35.9, -58.3 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 36

2018-10-05 10:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050855 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 ...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 58.3W ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected to occur today, but Leslie will make a sharp turn toward the east and east-southeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada today. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

2018-10-05 10:55:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 050855 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 36

2018-10-05 10:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050855 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 58.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......130NE 130SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 420SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 58.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 58.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 36.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.4N 57.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.4N 55.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.7N 49.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 33.5N 45.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 31.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 58.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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