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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 38
2018-10-05 22:39:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 ...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 58.1W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 58.1 West. Leslie is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the east at a faster forward speed is expected on Saturday, and a motion toward the east-southeast is expected Saturday night through Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. A slight weakening is forecast during the next few days. Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 38
2018-10-05 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 052039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 58.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 36.7N 57.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.7N 55.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 58.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-05 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 14:48:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 15:22:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 37
2018-10-05 16:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051443 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 The structure of Leslie has changed little since the last advisory, with a cluster of convection just north of the low-level center and a second cluster well to the southeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from earlier scatterometer data, but it is possible that this is a little generous. It should be noted that overall, Leslie has lost some organization since this time yesterday due to the disappearance of the eye and an overall decrease in convective banding. Leslie appears to be slowing its forward speed, with the initial motion now 345/8. A turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected during the next 12 h, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. A general motion toward the east-southeast or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast period. As noted in the previous advisory, there has been a southward shift in the guidance, and the new forecast track is again shifted a little to the south of the previous track. However, it lies to the north of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The forecast track takes Leslie over cooler waters around days 2-3, into increasing shear around days 3-4, and over warmer water with decreasing shear around days 4-5. However, the structure of Leslie is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity either up or down. Thus, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening for 48-72 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada later today. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 36.2N 58.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 36.8N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 37.1N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 36.9N 54.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 36.5N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 31.0N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2018-10-05 16:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 051441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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