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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2018-10-06 22:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 062036 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-06 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 37.4, -54.5 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 42
2018-10-06 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062036 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 ...LESLIE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 54.5W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 54.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster motion toward the east and east-southeast is expected through the middle of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 to 3 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven/Avila
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 42
2018-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 062035 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 54.5W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 300SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 54.5W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.8N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.8N 45.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.5N 40.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.5N 35.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 41
2018-10-06 16:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061458 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 The central convection associated with Leslie has become better organized this morning, with conventional satellite imagery showing a tightly curved band and recent microwave imagery showing a mid-level eye. However, the microwave data also suggests the mid-level eye is located to the southeast of the low-level center. It is also not known whether there is an inner wind maximum associated with this feature. Satellite intensity estimates are mostly in the 45-55 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The initial motion is now 080/8. Leslie is now in or near the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and with the assistance of a couple of shortwave troughs, these are expected to push Leslie toward the east and southeast throughout the forecast period. Despite general agreement on the synoptic pattern, there is now a large spread in the guidance toward the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF and UKMET show a more southward turn after 72 h, taking Leslie well south of 30N. The GFS, on the other hand, shows a more eastward motion to the point where by 96 h it is 950 n mi from the UKMET forecast position. The new forecast track compromises between these extremes and lies near the TVCN consensus, with the caveat that the part after 72 h is of low confidence. Leslie should weaken some during the next 48 h or so as it crosses an area of cooler sea surface temperatures. After that, the track takes the center back over warmer water at the same time when there may be an increase in shear. There is an increased uncertainty in the intensity forecast caused by the track forecast uncertainties. If Leslie moves closer to the GFS track, it will be over cooler water and in stronger shear, while if it moves closer to the UKMET solution it will be over warmer water and lighter shear. Due to to the uncertainty, only minor adjustments are made to the previous intensity forecast. Additional adjustments may be needed later depending on changes in the track forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 37.7N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 37.6N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 37.3N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 36.6N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 35.7N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 33.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 29.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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