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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-07 04:47:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 37.3, -52.9 with movement E at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 43
2018-10-07 04:47:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070247 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 ...LESLIE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 52.9W ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 52.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is forecast to continue into Sunday morning. A motion toward the east-southeast is expected to begin by Sunday afternoon or evening and continue through the middle of next week, with Leslie moving across the open central and eastern Atlantic during that time. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 43
2018-10-07 04:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070246 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 52.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 330SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 52.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.8N 51.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.2N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.4N 46.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.2N 43.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 38.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 33.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 28.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.3N 52.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-06 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 20:39:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 21:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 42
2018-10-06 22:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062037 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 The central convection associated with Leslie is still well organized and concentrated. A recent SSMIS image shows that Leslie's inner core is better defined resembling an eyewall. However, Dvorak estimates still support an initial intensity intensity of 50 kt. Leslie should weaken slightly during the next 24 to 36 h as the cyclone crosses patches of cooler SSTs. After that time, the track takes the center back over warmer waters, but the shear could increase a little. Only minor adjustments are made to the previous intensity forecast, and the NHC forecast follows very close the model consensus which suggests slight strengthening by the end of the forecast period. Leslie continues to be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and is moving toward the east or 100 degrees at 10 kt. These westerlies are forecast to be modulated by the passage of short waves, and the flow pattern will initially keep Leslie on east to east-southeast track for most of the forecast period. By the end of the period a turn to the northeast is anticipated. Models are not in great agreement but they are consistently showing the eastward progression of the cyclone. The NHC forecast is very close to the models consensus, and is basically in the middle of the track envelope. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 37.4N 54.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 35.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 34.8N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 28.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 28.5N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven/Avila
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