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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-05 16:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 36.2, -58.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 37
2018-10-05 16:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 ...WAVES FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COASTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.2N 58.4W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 36.2 North, longitude 58.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A slight weakening is forecast during the next few days. Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles during the next few days. Swells are expected to increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada today. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 37
2018-10-05 16:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT.......130NE 130SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT.......250NE 220SE 190SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 360SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 58.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.8N 58.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...220NE 210SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 37.1N 56.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 36.9N 54.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 190SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 180SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 33.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 31.0N 42.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 58.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-05 10:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 08:57:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Oct 2018 09:22:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 36
2018-10-05 10:56:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050856 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 Leslie's structure has evolved somewhat just within the past 6 hours. Deep convection has redeveloped near the low-level center, although it is displaced a bit to the north due to some southerly shear. The cyclone's circulation remains quite large, and earlier ASCAT data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is about 90-100 n mi away from the center. Since there is some inner-core convection again, the initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the ASCAT data. Leslie has gained some speed and has turned toward the north-northwest, now with an initial motion of 345/12 kt. A general northward motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours, but then Leslie will reach the mid-latitude westerlies and make an abrupt turn toward the east by 36 hours. After that time, Leslie is expected to make some significant eastward progress, although the global models are showing several shortwave troughs in the westerlies imparting a southeastward motion on Leslie by days 4 and 5. In fact, some of the models have shifted significantly southward by the end of the forecast period, leaving the previous official forecast near the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track prediction has been adjusted southward on days 3-5, although it does not yet show as much southward motion as indicated by the normally reliable ECMWF, HCCA, and TVCN multi-model consensus. Leslie doesn't appear to have to contend with much shear during the next 3 days or so, but with such a large wind field mixing the ocean around it, marginal sea surface temperatures are likely to keep the intensity steady. By days 3 and 4, an increase in shear could cause some slight weakening. The models are in very good agreement in showing little to any change in Leslie's intensity during the next 5 days, and that is largely what is indicated in the NHC forecast. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These swells will also increase near the coasts of New England and Atlantic Canada later today. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life- threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 35.9N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 36.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 37.4N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 37.4N 55.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 35.7N 49.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 33.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 31.5N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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