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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 40
2018-10-06 10:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060847 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......250NE 250SE 240SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 300SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 56.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 37.3N 55.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 200SE 200SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.5N 50.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 170SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.7N 47.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.4N 42.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.5N 32.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 56.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-06 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 02:34:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 03:22:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 39
2018-10-06 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern consists of a small ring of shallow to moderate convection embedded within a large and vigorous circulation. Dvorak classifications allow me to keep the same intensity, and in fact, ASCAT data just came in with a few 50-kt wind vectors. So the initial intensity remains at 50 kt in this advisory. Leslie will not encounter any hostile shear, but the cyclone will move over a few patches of warm and cool waters. The guidance shows some minor fluctuations in the cyclone intensity, most likely due to the aforementioned SST variations along the track, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Leslie is moving toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 6 kt. The cyclone is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow, which is being modulated by passing shortwaves. This flow pattern is expected to persist and should steer Leslie eastward and east-southeastward through the next 5 days. Although the track guidance is not as clustered as in previous days, most of the models agree with the eastward motion of the cyclone, but vary in speed. It appears that stubborn Leslie will be with us for several more days. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 36.6N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 37.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 36.5N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 36.0N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 34.0N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 31.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2018-10-06 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 060231 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-06 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INDOMITABLE LESLIE EXPECTED TO STIR UP THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 36.6, -57.2 with movement ENE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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