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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2018-10-07 10:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 070847 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 44
2018-10-07 10:47:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 52.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 240SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 52.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.6N 50.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 200SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 36.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.1N 45.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.7N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 30.1N 36.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 160SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N 32.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 27.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 52.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-07 04:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 02:51:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 03:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 43
2018-10-07 04:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 Leslie's convective organization has changed little since the previous advisory, with a small burst of deep convection having developed just southeast of the center. The intensity remains at 50 kt based on an average of current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a partial ASCAT pass that showed several 45-kt surface wind vectors well east of the missed low-level center. The initial motion estimate is easterly or 095/11 kt. Leslie is forecast to remain embedded in weak mid-latitude west-northwesterly flow for the next few days, which should keep the cyclone moving toward the east-southeast over warmer water. By 72 h and beyond, a stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dig to the west of Leslie, lifting the cyclone out toward the east and northeast. The new NHC forecast track is similar to, but a slower than, the previous advisory track, but not as slow as the consensus models. Leslie is expected to weaken slightly during the next 36 h as the cyclone entrains some drier air. After that time, however, Leslie is expected to move over warmer waters with SSTs reaching more than 25 deg C by 48 h and beyond while the shear is forecast to remain low. As a result, some modest re-strengthening is forecast on days 2-5. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 37.3N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 36.8N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 36.2N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 35.4N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 34.2N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 30.9N 38.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 28.7N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 29.5N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 43
2018-10-07 04:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 070247 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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