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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-06 10:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 08:51:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 09:22:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 40
2018-10-06 10:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060849 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 Leslie is producing a cluster of deep convection near its center of circulation and a far-reaching band that curls around the eastern side of the expansive circulation. The maximum winds are still estimated to be 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT pass. Leslie's future intensity will largely be limited by a less-than-ideal thermodynamic environment, with the center moving over water temperatures of 24-25 degrees Celsius within its own cold wake during the next 48 hours. Some weakening is anticipated during that period, and the NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus and HCCA guidance. After 48 hours, some restrengthening is possible when Leslie reaches some warmer waters, although increasing westerly shear is likely to temper the amount of intensification. Leslie's current motion is northeastward, or 045/7 kt. The cyclone is becoming increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and these winds, with the assistance of a couple of shortwave troughs, are expected to push Leslie toward the east and southeast throughout the forecast period. The one notable model anomaly is the ECMWF, which shows Leslie becoming more separated from the mid-latitude flow and moving more slowly than shown in the other models on days 3 through 5. Even with that model being an outlier, the rest of the guidance has sped up a bit, pulling the consensus aids eastward. This resulted in the new NHC track forecast being a little faster than the previous one on days 4 and 5. Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 37.2N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 37.3N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 37.1N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 36.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 35.7N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 33.4N 42.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 30.5N 37.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 28.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2018-10-06 10:49:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 060848 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-06 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE LOITERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 37.2, -56.4 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 40
2018-10-06 10:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018 ...LESLIE LOITERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.2N 56.4W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 37.2 North, longitude 56.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster motion toward the east and east-southeast is expected through the middle of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of the eastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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