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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 17

2016-10-02 10:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 020855 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * HAITI * CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA... ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 74.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 74.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 73.9W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.6N 74.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 74.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.8N 74.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N 74.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 76.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 74.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics

2016-10-02 07:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2016 05:51:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 02 Oct 2016 03:04:34 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)

2016-10-02 07:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 2 the center of MATTHEW was located near 13.8, -73.9 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 16A

2016-10-02 07:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 020550 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016 ...POWERFUL MATTHEW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 73.9W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantanamo province A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Matthew. A Hurricane Watch could be needed for portions of the Bahamas later this morning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 73.9 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest at 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area in Jamaica and Haiti on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach these areas by this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Monday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...3 to 5 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg

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