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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-07-26 10:56:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 260855 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 1 57(58) 13(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA CLARION 50 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 56(71) 2(73) X(73) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 1(35) X(35) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 3(43) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 20
2017-07-26 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260844 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 112.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.1N 114.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.6N 116.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Hilary Graphics
2017-07-26 04:52:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 02:52:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 02:52:19 GMT
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 19
2017-07-26 04:50:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260249 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017 Hilary's convective cloud pattern has continued to fluctuate between an occasional symmetric appearance containing a cloud-covered eye to the current asymmetric pattern with little or no outer banding features evident and the eye completely obscured in conventional infrared imagery. However, recent SSMI, SSMIS, and AMSU microwave images still indicate that Hilary has a well-defined, 10-nmi-diameter eye and a thick eyewall beneath the cirrus canopy. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt and T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, to T5.5/102 kt from the NHC Dvorak objective technique. Given the large range of estimates, the initial intensity will remain at 90 kt for now, which could be a little conservative. The initial motion remains a steady 285/10 kt. Hilary is forecast to continue on a general west-northwestward track for the next 72 hours or so. Thereafter, a slight bend toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected due to binary/Fujiwhara interaction with Hurricane Irwin. The forward speed difference between Hilary and Irwin is about 3-4 kt, with Hilary steadily getting closer to Irwin. That trend should continue on days 4 and 5 with the distance between the two cyclones decreasing to about 300 nmi, resulting in the two systems orbiting cyclonically about each other. Since Hilary is forecast to be the larger and more dominant circulation, Irwin's effect on Hilary's track is expected to be minimal. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered around the previous advisory track, so the new track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory. Although SHIPS and UW-CIMMS shear analyses indicate north to northwesterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, there is no evidence of this shear based on water vapor imagery showing nearly symmetrical cirrus outflow and the eye being embedded in the center or south side of the CDO. The main inhibiting factor that has kept Hilary from strengthening appears to have been intermittent dry air intrusions into the inner-core region causing a brief erosion of the eyewall convection. Microwave data suggests that dry air remains nearby, so little if any intensification is forecast for the next 24 hours as a result. By 36 h and beyond, Hilary will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and upper-ocean heat content values near zero, and reaching 24C water on days 4 and 5. The decreasing thermodynamics should result in gradual weakening from 36-72 hours, with faster weakening thereafter. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.0N 109.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.9N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.4N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 19.2N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.0N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 21.0N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-26 04:46:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 the center of Hilary was located near 16.0, -109.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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