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Hurricane HILARY Graphics
2017-07-27 22:41:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 20:41:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 21:26:15 GMT
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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-07-27 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272036 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Since the last advisory, the structure of Hilary has changed quite a bit. The primary feature is now a long band, extending almost 3/4 of the way around the circulation. Cloud tops have warmed during this time and a pronounced dry slot is visible over the eastern half of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased, so the intensity has been decreased accordingly, to 65 kt. The intensity guidance remains divided, with the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models insisting on reintensification, and SHIPS and LGEM showing steady state or weakening. Simulated IR imagery from the HWRF forecast shows the development of a nearly clear eye in only 12 hours. Given the current structure of the cyclone, this seems unlikely. Therefore, the new official intensity forecast favors the statistical guidance and is a little above a blend of SHIPS and LGEM through 36 h. After that time, decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should result in steady weakening, ultimately causing the cyclone to become a remnant low. Since it is the stronger system, Hilary is still expected to dominate the interaction with Irwin, and is now forecast to absorb Irwin in about 96 h, as depicted by the ECMWF. 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 was very helpful in determining the initial position of of Hilary at 1800 UTC, and the low-level circulation has at times been visible through the higher cirrus cover. The initial motion is a somewhat more certain 290/8 kt. The extent to which Irwin will affect the track of Hilary still varies between the global models, with the GFS showing a stronger Hilary moving farther north, and the UKMET and ECMWF showing a weaker Hilary pulled farther south. The official track forecast still lies between these solutions, but favors the southern solution since the intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.9N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 18.3N 117.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.1N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.8N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.5N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 22.5N 131.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 23.7N 134.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane HILARY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2017-07-27 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 272036 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 3 60(63) 24(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 20N 120W 50 X 10(10) 34(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) 23(54) X(54) X(54) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane HILARY Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-07-27 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272035 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 116.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 116.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.3N 117.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.1N 119.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 121.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.5N 131.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.7N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane HILARY (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-27 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY WEAKENS SOME MORE BUT STILL A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of HILARY was located near 17.9, -116.6 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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