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Hurricane HILARY Public Advisory Number 26

2017-07-27 22:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 272035 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...HILARY WEAKENS SOME MORE BUT STILL A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 116.6W ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 116.6 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Hilary Graphics

2017-07-27 16:45:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 14:45:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 15:26:34 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-27 16:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILARY WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Hilary was located near 17.6, -116.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Hilary Graphics

2017-07-27 10:59:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 08:59:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jul 2017 09:23:09 GMT

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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 24

2017-07-27 10:54:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270854 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Hilary has lost organization due to the effects of moderate northerly vertical shear, with recent Windsat and GPM overpasses indicating that the center is now near the northwestern edge of the main convective area. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 75-90 kt, while estimates based on microwave sounding data and the CIMSS ADT are 55-65 kt. Based on a blend of these, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 75 kt. The large-scale models forecast Hilary to move under a cyclonic shear axis between two upper-level high pressure areas during the next 24-48 h. This evolution may allow the current shear to decrease, but it is not an ideal environment for a tropical cyclone. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during this time, which is in good agreement with the intensity guidance. After 48 h, Hilary should move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is likely to significantly interact with Tropical Storm Irwin. The large-scale models differ on the details, but they agree that the combination of the interaction, dry air, and the presence of cool water should cause Hilary to quickly weaken as a result. Thus, the new intensity forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion is 290/10. For the first 48 h or so, Hilary should be steered generally west-northwestward by the subtropical ridge. After that, the track forecast becomes very uncertain due to the interaction with Irwin, where the latter cyclone is likely to move around the eastern and northern sides of Hilary before a possible merger. The Canadian model merges the two cyclones in about 72 h, while the GFS finishes the merger at about 120 h. On the other hand, the ECMWF delays the merger until after the forecast period, while the UKMET keeps the two systems separate. The new track forecast will not attempt to show the details of the interaction, but it will show more of a westward turn and changes in speed during the interaction than the previous forecast. Overall, the new track is close to the consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.7N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.4N 118.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.8N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 126.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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