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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-09 23:05:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 21:05:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 21:29:35 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-09 23:02:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092102 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to be an impressive hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates have been gradually increasing, with TAFB and SAB coming in at 5.5, ADT at 5.8, and 6.0 from CPHC. Indeed, the satellite presentation has been slowly improving over the last several hours as the CDO becomes more symmetric once again, the eye has warmed and become more distinct, and outflow has improved somewhat in the southwest quadrant. In deference to the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission which found winds higher than the earlier satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt, but this could be a bit conservative. Another aircraft will be in to sample the wind field around 00z. The initial motion continues to be a fairly steady 310/12. Jose is pushing northwestward around a mid- and upper-level high located to the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the high spreads southward. After 48 hours, the models are in good agreement showing Jose slowing to a crawl and executing a slow loop well to the east of the Bahamas. The much slower forward motion will occur as Jose becomes embedded within a large mid-level anticyclone and steering currents diminish. The guidance has shifted this loop slightly to the south and west for this cycle and the official forecast has been adjusted to be in better alignment with the model consensus. The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Although the models insist that southwesterly shear will increase over Jose through the next 36 hours, the UW-CIMSS analysis shows that Jose is under a narrow zone of weak shear that appears to be moving westward in tandem with the hurricane. This should allow Jose to maintain its intensity in the short term, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. The official forecast is not as aggressive with weakening as the previous forecast package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 19.2N 62.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 20.4N 64.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 67.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.0N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 26.3N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 25.0N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-09-09 22:57:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 092057 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 4(11) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 7(19) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 6(18) 10(28) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 7(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 5( 7) PONCE PR 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 4( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 5(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 4( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 3( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-09 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOSE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 19.2, -62.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 18
2017-09-09 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 092057 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOSE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 62.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Barbuda and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Martin * Sint Maarten * St. Barthelemy For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 62.4 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will move away from the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in intensity is expected overnight, but gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this evening. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce up to an inch of additional rainfall on Anguilla through this evening. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding. STORM SURGE: Tidal levels will gradually subside over the northern Leeward Islands tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and will begin to affect the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
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