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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 18

2017-09-09 22:54:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092054 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MARTIN * SINT MAARTEN * ST. BARTHELEMY HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 62.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 170SE 60SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 62.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 67.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.3N 69.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.0N 67.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD

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Hurricane Jose Graphics

2017-09-09 19:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 17:53:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 15:32:04 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-09 19:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EYE OF HURRICANE JOSE PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 18.8, -61.9 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 17A

2017-09-09 19:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091744 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...EYE OF HURRICANE JOSE PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 61.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The government of Sint Maarten has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Martin * Sint Maarten * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 61.9 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h). A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will continue to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands through this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to occur over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this evening. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the portions of Northern Leeward Islands, with with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and will begin to affect the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands over the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard/Brown

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