je.st
news
Tag: jose
Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 17
2017-09-09 17:06:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 091506 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIUGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 120SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 60.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 62.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.9N 64.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 68.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 68.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 67.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.7N 66.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/COHEN
Tags: number
jose
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-09 17:03:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091503 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to exhibit a well-defined eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery, and U.S. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft measurements suggest that this eye has become slightly more asymmetric. The eye is evident on the Meteo France radar and it is beginning to pass just north of the northernmost Leeward Islands. The aircraft data indicate that Jose remains a category 4 hurricane, and reconnaissance aircraft has reported SFMR and flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 125 kt for this advisory. The latest minimum pressure reported by the plane is 945 mb. Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate northeastward elongation of the cirrus canopy accompanying Jose, suggesting the southwesterly shear over the system is beginning to increase. The interaction between Jose and shear accompanying the aforementioned trough will likely result in a weakening trend through the weekend. The official intensity forecast has trended slightly lower, consistent with the latest IVCN and HCCA output. Once the deep shear superimposing Jose weakens with the departure of the mid-latitude trough, Jose's weakening is expected slow by early next week. During the next couple of days, Jose is expected to turn more north of west while being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. The latest official track forecast reflects a slight increase in forward motion over the next couple of days. By early next week, the flow around the trough will result in a northward, then eastward turn around 26N. Thereafter, Jose forward motion should slow down as it is left within an area of weak steering current behind the trough. The latest track of Jose has been shifted southward after 72 h to be more consistent with the latest ECMWF and TVCN guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 18.3N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.4N 62.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.9N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.1N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 26.0N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 26.0N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 25.7N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cohen/Brown
Tags: number
discussion
jose
forecast
Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-09-09 16:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 091457 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 4(16) 3(19) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PONCE PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) SAINT CROIX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 23 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) 1(27) SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ANTIGUA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER WPC FORECASTER
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-09 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 18.3, -61.3 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 17
2017-09-09 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 091457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...JOSE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 61.3W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Island has been discontinued. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Antigua and the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 61.3 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass just north of the northern Leeward Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to occur over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through this evening. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in the portions of Northern Leeward Islands, with with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cohen
Tags: number
public
jose
advisory
Sites : [72] [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] next »