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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2017-09-09 10:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 090853 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 1(16) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) PONCE PR 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 11(13) 4(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 2(20) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 47 25(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 1(74) SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 11 6(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) BARBUDA 50 40 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BARBUDA 64 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ANTIGUA 34 34 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 1(37) ANTIGUA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)

2017-09-09 10:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JOSE HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 17.5, -60.3 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 16

2017-09-09 10:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...JOSE HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 60.3W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 60.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A continued west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands today. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Advisory Number 16

2017-09-09 10:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090851 TCMAT2 HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 60.3W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 60.3W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.9N 63.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 65.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.1N 67.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.5N 67.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.4N 66.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 60.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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