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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 14A
2017-09-09 01:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 082352 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 JOSE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 58.8W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 58.8 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin overnight and continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected after that. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by Saturday morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-08 22:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 20:48:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 20:48:55 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-08 22:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 082042 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 Jose's satellite presentation continues to impress. A nearly perfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still no sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Irma. Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak intensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still lower than what the plane found. The initial intensity has been held at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations, but given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative. Another reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better estimate of the intensity. Internal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in the intensity for the next 12 hours or so. After that, all of the intensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the forecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded all previous forecasts. The NHC forecast continues to follow the trend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most of the forecast period. Given the small size of the inner-core of Jose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a faster rate than indicated. The global models have come into very good agreement on the track of Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of confidence in that part of the forecast. The eye of Jose should turn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on Saturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level trough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and eventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however the model spread has decreased. Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose being left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light steering flow. The forecast continues to split these two models, and is very close to the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.6N 58.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.3N 60.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.4N 61.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 19.9N 64.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 21.7N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 24.9N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.0N 68.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 28.0N 66.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-09-08 22:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 082042 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) 4(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 64(66) 15(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 17(17) 23(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 39(41) 6(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 19 75(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BARBUDA 50 1 64(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BARBUDA 64 X 36(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ANTIGUA 34 10 58(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) ANTIGUA 50 1 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ANTIGUA 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 4 11(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GUADELOUPE 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-08 22:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8 the center of Jose was located near 16.6, -58.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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